Why John Michael Greer’s Theory of Catabolic Collapse Is More Terrifying Than Apocalypse

John Michael Greer’s theory of catabolic collapse presents a provocative perspective on the decline of civilizations, arguing that societal disintegration is a gradual process rather than a singular apocalyptic event. This framework posits that as societies exhaust their resource bases while increasing complexity, they ultimately “cannibalize” their own infrastructures, leading to systemic deterioration over time.

Greer’s ideas challenge conventional narratives that depict collapse as a sudden crisis, suggesting instead a protracted decline marked by escalating crises in economic, ecological, and social spheres.

This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

T.S. Eliot

The Theoretical Framework

Overviewing the concept, Greer’s theory posits that civilizations face inevitable decline when they exceed their resource base. This is a non-linear process rather than a sudden catastrophe. The core argument is that human societies, in their attempt to sustain themselves, often cannibalize their own infrastructure, resulting in a gradual but inevitable decline over time. This contrasts sharply with the traditional view of collapse as a rapid, Hollywood-style event.

The Trap of Complexity

Greer emphasizes that as societies expand their complexity—through increased infrastructure and technological advancement—they simultaneously deplete essential resources. This dynamic leads to a self-reinforcing cycle of crisis and recovery. As resources dwindle, the ability to respond to crises diminishes, creating a feedback loop where complexity heightens the risk of failure, thereby accelerating the decline.

Complexity is a problem-solving strategy that generates costs. When the marginal costs of solving problems exceed the marginal benefits, societies begin to decline.

Joseph Tainter

Societal Structures and Sustainability

The theory suggests a shift in the dynamics of society during the collapse process. As conditions worsen, smaller, more egalitarian groups are likely to outcompete larger, hierarchical structures. This indicates a fundamental transformation in human organization, where sustainability becomes not just feasible, but strategically advantageous in the face of systemic decline.

Key Themes in the Descent

Greer’s work sits at the intersection of environmentalism, sociology, and economic critique. Several key themes emerge from his analysis:

• Resource Depletion and Economic Collapse: Societies dependent on nonrenewable resources face inevitable economic decline. As extraction costs rise, the maintenance of capital becomes increasingly difficult, resulting in a breakdown of essential services.

• Capital and Its Maintenance: Capital—including physical assets like buildings and social structures like governance—requires ongoing investment. When societies grow too complex, the resources needed to sustain this capital exceed production, leading them to prioritize immediate survival over long-term maintenance.

• Community Resilience: Localized approaches, tailored to each community’s unique strengths, are vital. By fostering local partnerships and engaging community members in resource management, societies can develop support systems to withstand scarcity.